S&P 500 calculator

Simulate returns on ETF investments on indices such as the S&P 500, MSCI World & more!

Future return simulator

Starting amount

The amount you invest at the beginning of the simulation. You can enter "0" if you plan to make only monthly investments.

Monthly contribution

The amount you plan to invest regularly every month. You can enter "0" if you are making only a one-time initial investment.

Investment period

The total duration of the investment in years. For example, 10 years, 20 years, etc.

years

Expected return

The returns considered in each case correspond to the annualized return over the last 20 years (31/03/2005 - 31/03/2025). Past returns do not guarantee future results and should not be the sole factor when selecting an investment product or strategy.

S&P 500*

MSCI World*

MSCI ACWI*

Custom

* The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S.

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Results

Final balance

€

Total investments

€

Total investment return

€

If you start with an initial investment of $1,000 and invest $100 per month at an annual expected return of 5% for 10 years, you will reach a final balance of $16,722. This amount is made up of $13,000 in total investments and $3,722 in total investment returns.

See total returns

The results presented are simulations and do not constitute any form of financial advice.

How to calculate the S&P 500 future return?

There are several ways to calculate the S&P 500 expected return. Two of them include:
‍

Use past returns to predict future expected returns (what is primarily done in this calculator);
Use Capital Market Assumptions to assess the annualised expected returns.

The first approach implies that past economic factors will continue to apply going forward, which may or may not be accurate. So, we must be careful about using historical returns to estimate future returns.The second approach considers a methodology based on earnings growth, dividend yield and repricing.

The BlackRock Investment Institute produces a set of Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) related to several asset classes. The expected S&P 500 returns in USD are:

Years	Expected return (annualised)
5 years	15.00
10 years	5.70%
20 years	6.70%

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, February 2025. Data as of 31 December 2024.

Looking for the expected S&P 500 in other currencies like EUR or GBP? Go to our glossary below and explore the section “BlackRock Investment Institute’s Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)”.

There is no “correct” or “wrong” way of estimating the expected returns for the S&P 500. If you don’t agree with these approaches, you may change to your own expected return in the calculator!

FAQs

What does this calculator do?

This calculator estimates the growth of an investment in the S&P 500 over a selected time period. It factors in your initial investment, monthly contributions, and historical index returns - including dividends. If you want to include inflation to get a real return, simply insert the expected return considering inflation.

Example: If you expected an annual return of 7% and inflation at 2%, merely insert 5% in the calculator, and you get the real return.

What data does the calculator use?

The tool is based on historical S&P 500 data (last 20 years), including price performance and dividends. It also includes the data of other indexes such as the MSCI World and the MSCI ACWI.

Can I use this calculator to plan my retirement or investment strategy?

It’s a helpful educational tool, but it should not replace personalized financial advice. For planning, consider using more robust financial software or consulting a professional.

What are the Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)?

Capital Market Assumptions are long-term forecasts of expected returns, risks (volatility), and correlations across different asset classes. These projections help investors, asset managers, and institutions shape strategic asset allocation and make informed investment decisions. It is used by pension funds, asset managers, and institutional investors to construct diversified portfolios.

CMAs are typically updated annually based on economic conditions, historical trends, and forward-looking models.

Are you using the S&P 500 or other index?

In practice, BlackRock uses “US equities” to calculate the expected return for US stock market by using the MSCI USA Index. However, there is a significant overlap between this index and the S&P 500.

To illustrate our point, we can compare the performance of two ETFs replicating each index: iShares MSCI USA UCITS ETF (Acc) and the iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc):

Can I get the expected returns for the US stock market in other currencies?

Yes, BlackRock CMAs also uses estimates for other currencies like the EUR and GBP:

Years	Expected return EUR (annualised)	Expected return GBP (annualised)
5 years	3.10%	3.20%
10 years	3.80%	4.00%
20 years	5.10%	5.20%

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, February 2025. Data as of 31 December 2024.

Bottom line

Please note that Euro return expectations for all asset classes are shown in hedged terms, except regional equity markets, Chinese government bonds, local-currency EM debt and private markets other than hedge funds.

Sterling return expectations for all asset classes are shown in hedged terms, except regional equity markets, Chinese government bonds, local-currency EM debt and private markets other than hedge funds.