S&P 500 Historical Returns Calculator
CalculatorSimulate the historical returns of the S&P 500 and see how your investment would have grown over time.
S&P 500 Historical Returns Calculator
Fill in the details and click Calculate to see the results.
Results
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Final investment value
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Total return
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Average annual return
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The results shown are simulations based on historical S&P 500 data and do not represent financial advice or any guarantee of future returns.
Total capital (in $)
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Investment value
Year
Investment value
Annual return
The results shown are simulations and do not represent any kind of financial advice.
Glossary
What is the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is the index that tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, weighted by market capitalization. It is considered the main barometer of the American stock market and one of the most widely used benchmarks worldwide for measuring the performance of large-cap stocks.
Companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia and JPMorgan are part of the index. To better understand how it works and how you can invest in this index from Europe, read our article on how to invest in the S&P 500 from Europe.
Why does the data start in 1871?
The simulator uses the historical series reconstructed by economist Robert Shiller, which combines original data with reconstructions made by the Cowles Commission from indices that preceded the current S&P 500.
It's important to consider the evolution of the index over time:
- Pre-1928: the data exists, but it is reconstructed retroactively from precursor indices. It is more "curated" than directly measured.
- 1923: the S&P 90 is created, with 90 stocks.
- 1928: the index begins to be published daily, with reasonable market coverage.
- 1957: the index expands to the current 500 (S&P 500).
Most historical S&P calculators use 1928 as a starting point by convention. We chose to extend the base back to 1871 to give you a longer perspective, but keep in mind that the further back in time you go, the more reconstructed the series is.
What's the difference between reinvesting and not reinvesting dividends?
Dividends are payments that companies distribute to shareholders from their profits. In the simulator, you can choose between two scenarios:
- Not reinvesting dividends: you simulate only the evolution of the index price, ignoring the dividends paid by the companies.
- Reinvesting dividends: you simulate the total return, in which each dividend received is automatically reinvested into more units of the index. This scenario reflects what happens, in practice, when you invest through an accumulating ETF or when you manually reinvest the dividends of a distributing ETF.
The difference between the two scenarios is significant over the long term. Historically, dividends represent a relevant part of the S&P 500's total return, and the compounding effect (interest on interest) means that reinvesting them generates an ever-growing difference as the time horizon increases.
What is the inflation adjustment?
Inflation corresponds to the loss of purchasing power of money over time. A thousand dollars in 1990 doesn't buy the same amount of goods and services as a thousand dollars today.
When you enable the inflation adjustment option, the simulator presents the return in real terms, meaning it discounts the effect of inflation. Instead of showing you how many nominal dollars you'd have today, it shows you what your equivalent purchasing power would be in today's dollars.
The adjustment is made based on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official American consumer price index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) since 1913. For the period before 1913, where official data does not exist, we use Robert Shiller's historical reconstruction. Note that different academic sources use slightly different reconstructions for the pre-1913 period, so inflation-adjusted results for simulations beginning before that date may vary between calculators.
How is the return calculated?
The simulator uses monthly S&P 500 data. Prices come from the historical series reconstructed by Robert Shiller (Yale).
For the dividend reinvestment scenario, we calculate the Total Return month by month up to September 2023, using the dividends published by Shiller and the standard monthly total return formula. From October 2023 onwards, we use the official S&P 500 Total Return Index (^SP500TR), which already includes dividend reinvestment with daily compounding. This combination ensures long historical coverage with up-to-date accuracy.
The displayed return is calculated as follows:
- Total return: percentage change between the initial value and the final value of the investment, over the chosen period.
- Average annual return: compound annual rate (CAGR) that, when applied to the initial amount over the period in question, would result in the final value shown.
CAGR is the most accurate metric for comparing returns over different periods because it accounts for the compounding effect. To better understand how compound interest works, run a simulation directly in our compound interest calculator.
What data does the simulator use?
The simulator uses the following data sources:
- S&P 500 prices and historical dividends: Robert Shiller (Yale) series, which combines original data with Cowles Commission reconstructions for the period before 1928.
- S&P 500 Total Return Index post-September 2023: official index ^SP500TR.
- Inflation (CPI): Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the period from 1913 onwards; Robert Shiller's reconstruction for the earlier period.
The data is updated monthly.
Do past returns guarantee future returns?
No. This is perhaps the most important rule to keep in mind when looking at any historical simulator.
The fact that the S&P 500 has yielded, on average, close to 10% per year in nominal terms over the past century does not guarantee that the same will repeat over the next 10, 20 or 30 years. Markets go through long cycles of below-average returns (the 2000s in the U.S. is an example) and cycles of above-average returns.
The simulator is meant to give you a sense of the market's historical behavior and the impact of time, dividends and inflation on your wealth. It is not a forecast nor financial advice.
Can I use this simulator to plan my investments?
The simulator is an educational tool. It can help you understand the impact of long-term investing, dividend reinvestment and inflation on the growth of your wealth, but it does not replace an investment plan tailored to your profile, goals and time horizon.
This calculator shows you what would have happened based on historical data. If you want to project future scenarios, with regular monthly contributions and different assumptions for expected return, try our future S&P 500 returns calculator.
If you want to start investing in the S&P 500 in a simple and diversified way, check out our list of the best S&P 500 ETFs.
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